Bitcoin
Why Bitcoin and Crypto Are “On the Verge of Cannibalism”: Ikigai CIO
Travis Kling, founder and chief investment officer at Ikigai Asset Management, shared his insights into the current state of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem, which he described as follows: “Bitcoin is ~10% below ATHs and the timeline seems to be on the verge of cannibalism.” In a series of details Posts at X, Kling dissected the complex interplay of macroeconomic factors, ETF flows, and internal market dynamics that are shaping cryptocurrency markets.
Why is Bitcoin trading stable?
Kling began his analysis by addressing Bitcoin’s performance in relation to the broader macroeconomic environment. Despite the NASDAQ rising 16% since April 19 following a bearish rally induced by market concerns about rate cuts, Bitcoin has notably underperformed, remaining relatively stable. Kling pointed out: “BTC is trading very poorly relative to macro.” This poor performance is particularly impressive given that, during this period, US equity markets repeatedly set new all-time highs, while Bitcoin stagnated.
A significant part of Kling’s analysis focused on the dynamics of US Spot Bitcoin ETFs. As of May 13, the market has witnessed 19 consecutive days of robust ETF inflows totaling approximately $4 billion. Surprisingly, these substantial inflows only resulted in a 17% increase in the price of Bitcoin, which Kling argues is disheartening. He noted: “It is true that BTC is up 17% during this period, but why not more? Why not significantly higher maximums?”
This question points to underlying issues in market structure or investor sentiment that may be dampening the expected bullish response to inflow increases. Furthermore, recent ETF outflows have coincided with a 7% drop in the price of Bitcoin during a similar period, further complicating the narrative around ETF impacts.
Kling suggests that while ETF inflows and outflows are significant, they may not fully capture underlying market dynamics, indicating a complex interplay of arbitrage opportunities and market sentiment. “I think one thing we can say with confidence is that ETFs have a lot of arb flow. Just look at the 13Fs. There is the NAV arb and then it is transferred to futures and spot and there is the same basis trading that has always been present in this market,” Kling wrote.
He also speculated on external factors affecting the price of Bitcoin, such as possible government sales of confiscated Bitcoin during the Silk Road Operation. While admitting the lack of hard evidence, Kling aligns his hypothesis with the timing of certain market movements and known government actions. Additionally, he highlighted Ethereum’s influence on Bitcoin market dynamics, especially during a week of significant activity around an Ethereum ETF, which saw the highest weekly ETH to BTC volume on record since a previous peak.
What to expect from Ether and Altcoins?
Despite Ethereum’s influence on Bitcoin, ETH itself faces challenges. The expectation around Spot Ethereum ETFs did not translate into positive and sustained price action. Ethereum remains 30% below its all-time high, with upcoming ETFs potentially a critical factor. Kling postulates: “If [Ethereum ETF inflows] are strong, ETH will likely tear up strongly. If they are weak, ETH can be sold.” Uncertainty regarding the strength of these inflows and their impact on the market reflects broader market anxieties.
The broader altcoin market is also suffering, with many tokens significantly below their highs and struggling to find a foothold. Kling’s observations on the altcoin sector are particularly harsh: “The meta airdrop has been slowly dying for months. Alts are overwhelmed with token unlocks from holders that are in too many multiples and will hammer a non-existent supply.” This scenario illustrates the difficulties faced by smaller altcoins as they navigate a market dominated by big players like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
In conclusion, Kling’s comprehensive analysis suggests a cryptocurrency market is at a critical juncture, facing internal competition and macroeconomic mismatches that could define its trajectory in the coming months.
“So overall, this is what causes the schedule to act as if prices are 75% lower than they are now. BTC is likely rising this year. ETH is likely somewhere between fine and gangbusters this year based on ETH ETF flows. But the gap between BTC/ETH and everything else is big and will likely widen this year. If crypto can piece together even a modicum of legitimate narrative that can generate real inflows for Alts, everything could change quickly. But the current list of ‘narratives’ is unlikely to be able to do this,” concluded Kling.
At press time, BTC traded at $65,138.
BTC Price in Danger of Crash, 1-Day Chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image from YouTube/What Bitcoin Did, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin
What to watch for in the markets
Photo: Andrew Harnik (Getty Images)
After witnessing one of the largest global IT outages on record, affecting the travel, finance and healthcare sectors worldwideThis week is set to see more political drama, events, and earnings reports from tech giants.
Donald Trump’s ‘Lovefest’ Sets Jamie Dimon Up for Consideration for Treasury Secretary Job
Let’s take a look at what awaits us:
Major companies will release their earnings reports
Major tech companies and others will release their earnings reports this week, paving the way for what the second half of 2024 will look like.
Monday
- Verizon will report earnings before the start of operations.
Tuesday
- Coca-Cola, Comcast and UPS are all set to report earnings before the market opens.
- Tesla will report earnings in the morning, while General Motors will report earnings in the evening.
- Alphabet and Visa will report results after the market closes.
Wednesday
- AT&T will release its report before the market opens.
- Ford and Chipotle will report earnings after the market closes.
Thursday
- Earnings reports from AstraZeneca, American Airlines and Southwest Airlines will be released before the market opens.
Trump to speak at Bitcoin conference
Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump will speak at the next Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, Tennesseewhich is scheduled for July 25-27. While this is the first time a presidential candidate will attend the conference, it has sparked a debate over whether the crypto-friendly Trump will receive support from the crypto community in the upcoming election.
In addition to Trump, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will also discuss crypto during the conference. Crypto advocates such as ARK Investment’s Cathie Wood, MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor, and whistleblower Edward Snowden are among some prominent names who will be participating in the conference.
Ether ETFs are on the way
New Ether Spot ETFs are set to begin trading on Tuesday, July 23. Much like the spot Bitcoin ETFs, these ETFs will allow investors to buy the second most popular cryptocurrency like stocks. BlackRock, Ark Invest/21Shares, VanEck, Grayscale, Fidelity, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, and Invesco/Galaxy Digital are all set to offer Ether ETFs. Crypto asset manager Bitwise predict that trading in the Ether ETF will drive the price of Ether higher, potentially surpassing $5,000.
Bitcoin
Cryptocurrency’s Biggest Winners and Losers in a Second Trump Presidency
Bitcoin miners and cryptocurrency companies that have been blocked from going public in the U.S. could ultimately be the biggest winners in the digital asset world under a second Donald Trump presidency. Foreign companies at risk of losing market share could end up being the biggest losers.
That’s the view that’s taking hold among market participants and observers in the wake of the former president’s growing embrace of cryptocurrency as his chances of election grow. survey released Thursday by CBS News showed Trump with the majority — 52 percent — of likely voters in his likely November rematch with President Joe Biden.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and Cryptocurrency Markets Look Ready to ‘Send’ as Stars Align, According to Investor Chris Burniske
Cryptocurrency investor Chris Burniske says Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SUN) and the cryptocurrency market in general seem poised for a run.
Former Head of Cryptocurrency at ARK Invest account his 292,200 followers on social media platform X that several catalysts are aligning, suggesting that digital asset markets are on the verge of a bull run.
According to Burniske, a partner at venture capital firm Placeholder, the highly anticipated launch of Ethereum-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaking at an upcoming Bitcoin event, and the current state of the BTC, ETH, and SOL charts all suggest significant optimism for the cryptocurrency markets.
“With ETH ETFs set to go live, Trump speaking at The Bitcoin Conference, and BTC, ETH, and SOL charts looking [they do] (while stocks are weak), it’s hard to imagine a world where we don’t ship next week.”
Reuters recently reported that preliminary approval for ETH ETFs has been granted as the Bitcoin Conference is scheduled to take place from July 25-27.
BTC, ETH, and SOL are trading at $67,333, $3,528, and $174 at the time of writing, respectively.
The venture capitalist too provides an update on his prediction that the total crypto market cap will eventually hit $10 trillion. According to his chart, the path to $10 trillion is currently “23%” complete, as it sits around $2.2 trillion.
Source: Chris BurniskeX
Earlier this month, Burniske he said in an interview with Real Vision CEO Raoul Paul that he has his eye on the Move ecosystem, which was originally built by social media giant Meta and then used to develop layer 1 blockchains Sui (IUE) and Apts (APT).
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Bitcoin
Here’s the next target for BTC before bulls can hold out for $70K
Bitcoin’s recovery is going well, and the market is seemingly poised to create a new all-time high in the near term.
Technical analysis
Per NegotiationRage
The daily chart
As the daily chart shows, the price of Bitcoin has been rising since it broke above the 200-day moving average.
The market has also reclaimed the $60K and $65K levels and is moving towards the $68K resistance zone, which could be the last hurdle before creating a new all-time high. With the RSI also indicating that the price has clear bullish momentum, it could be just a matter of time.
The 4-hour chart
Looking at the 4-hour chart, it is evident that the price has been rising rapidly since breaking the downtrend line to the upside. The market also broke the $65K resistance level with momentum, turning it into a support.
While almost everything points to a new record high in the coming weeks, there is one worrying sign. The RSI is showing a clear bearish divergence between recent price highs, which could indicate a correction or even a reversal in the near term.
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